Updates and thoughts.
Blog
Brexit polling
Others can discuss elsewhere the broader implications of Brexit. I want to make a few brief points about the Brexit polling.
Who do you trust?
This is the first in a series of posts analyzing tweets about the election.
Model updates
We use a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach to obtain estimates of voting intent.
Our database
Petit Poll uses biased samples. Traditionally, this would make our results meaningless, but we are able to make reasonable conclusions because we tie our samples to representative data.
What our ads look like
Unless you live in Canberra you are unlikely to be exposed to our Facebook/Twitter ads. So I thought I'd take a moment to show you what they look like.
Our advertising campaigns
Watching Mad Men is the extent of my marketing experience. But n (the sample size) is an unavoidable aspect of confidence intervals. So I need more respondents than just my family and friends. This means advertising.
User privacy
Maintaining the trust of people who participate in Petit Poll is a critical aspect of operating Petit Poll. I would prefer to shut down Petit Poll than undermine that trust. Please point out any mistakes that I am making or areas that I could improve.
A thimble of success
We just ran the model on the tiny sample that we were able to gather from friends and family. There are a huge number of issues that we still need to solve, but the process seems to work.
Beta-email initial responses
Beta-email is a group of friends and family who signed up for our polls.
Live From California
I got onto the plane (enplaned?) in Sydney an hour or so before Turnbull went to see the GG, which meant that when I landed (and deplaned?) in San Francisco the election was well underway.
Federal Election Plans
In a few hours Malcolm Turnbull is expected to announce an election. This will be Petit Poll's first outing and our initial surveys are ready to go.
