Updates and thoughts.
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Brexit polling
Others can discuss elsewhere the broader implications of Brexit. I want to make a few brief points about the Brexit polling.
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Who do you trust?
This is the first in a series of posts analyzing tweets about the election.
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Model updates
We use a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) approach to obtain estimates of voting intent.
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Our database
Petit Poll uses biased samples. Traditionally, this would make our results meaningless, but we are able to make reasonable conclusions because we tie our samples to representative data.
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What our ads look like
Unless you live in Canberra you are unlikely to be exposed to our Facebook/Twitter ads. So I thought I'd take a moment to show you what they look like.
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Our advertising campaigns
Watching Mad Men is the extent of my marketing experience. But n (the sample size) is an unavoidable aspect of confidence intervals. So I need more respondents than just my family and friends. This means advertising.
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User privacy
Maintaining the trust of people who participate in Petit Poll is a critical aspect of operating Petit Poll. I would prefer to shut down Petit Poll than undermine that trust. Please point out any mistakes that I am making or areas that I could improve.
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A thimble of success
We just ran the model on the tiny sample that we were able to gather from friends and family. There are a huge number of issues that we still need to solve, but the process seems to work.
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Beta-email initial responses
Beta-email is a group of friends and family who signed up for our polls.
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Live From California
I got onto the plane (enplaned?) in Sydney an hour or so before Turnbull went to see the GG, which meant that when I landed (and deplaned?) in San Francisco the election was well underway.
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Federal Election Plans
In a few hours Malcolm Turnbull is expected to announce an election. This will be Petit Poll's first outing and our initial surveys are ready to go.
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